Are you worried yet.

Status
Not open for further replies.
CatmanV2

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
48,776
D Walker said:
The stats that I read were, if 10 in 1000, 60 year old men die from the old variant, the new variant would be 13/14 but the data is very new.
Click to expand...

It is. But you're saying the same thing (pretty much). 13 in 1000 is 30% more than 10 in 1000.

C
 
CatmanV2

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
48,776
We just ordered one of these

Pulse Oximeter Fingertip, Blood Oxygen Saturation Monitor with Pulse Rate and Accurate Fast Spo2 Reading Oxygen Meter, Portable Oximeter with Lanyard and Batteries (White): Amazon.co.uk: Health & Personal Care

Free delivery and returns on eligible orders of £20 or more. Buy Pulse Oximeter Fingertip, Blood Oxygen Saturation Monitor with Pulse Rate and Accurate Fast Spo2 Reading Oxygen Meter, Portable Oximeter with Lanyard and Batteries (White) at Amazon UK.
www.amazon.co.uk

As we lent the one we bought in March to a neighbour that's tested positive and has asthma as well as being overweight and was beginning to find breathing hard work last night.

The readings were completely consistent with her symptoms and 111 have let her stay home.

C
 
schell70

schell70

Member
Messages
314
CatmanV2 said:
Well some are always going to look on the down, some are going to look on the up. I'm finding myself continuing to sit in the middle that some bits of life are ****, and some aren't.

I do hope that people don't take it too hard.

C
Click to expand...
Lately I've decided to stop watching these Boris and gang specials and I feel a lot better!

On a positive note my GranTurismo passed its MOT this week - no advisories (thankfully my dicky headlight washer isn't tested as its a 2008 and the airbag light stayed off), 4k miles this year despite Covid. However my dashlights had stopped working when I picked it up - I feel another battery reset approaching!
 
CatmanV2

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
48,776
schell70 said:
Lately I've decided to stop watching these Boris and gang specials and I feel a lot better!

On a positive note my GranTurismo passed its MOT this week - no advisories (thankfully my dicky headlight washer isn't tested as its a 2008 and the airbag light stayed off), 4k miles this year despite Covid. However my dashlights had stopped working when I picked it up - I feel another battery reset approaching!
Click to expand...

Bloody good all round! I wish I had one.

C
 
Oneball

Oneball

Member
Messages
11,117
schell70 said:
Lately I've decided to stop watching these Boris and gang specials and I feel a lot better!

On a positive note my GranTurismo passed its MOT this week - no advisories (thankfully my dicky headlight washer isn't tested as its a 2008 and the airbag light stayed off), 4k miles this year despite Covid. However my dashlights had stopped working when I picked it up - I feel another battery reset approaching!
Click to expand...

Never watched one of them.

I prefer to get my news here. I’ve got a stockpile of batteries, heater matrix, a wine fridge, some gold and a set of Pilot Sports. Just need to find a copy of Razzle from 1972 and then you can bring on the zombie bat apocalypse!
 
Felonious Crud

Felonious Crud

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
21,170
Oneball said:
Never watched one of them.

I prefer to get my news here. I’ve got a stockpile of batteries, heater matrix, a wine fridge, some gold and a set of Pilot Sports. Just need to find a copy of Razzle from 1972 and then you can bring on the zombie bat apocalypse!
Click to expand...

... and a disturbing fixation with Jenny Agutter?
 
dgmx5

dgmx5

Member
Messages
1,142
D Walker said:
Indeed, I thought I would demonstrate the figures in a calculable way, rather than arbitrary numbers per se...
Click to expand...

Matt Hancock's been trying to do this and has been sanctioned (twice) by the UK Statistics Authority.

Boris used the example last night in "If 10 in 1000 60 year old men die from the old variant, the new variant would be 13 or 14 but the data is very new."

He then on to say something vague (excuse me, Boris, vague, surely not?) that a similar pattern could be seen elsewhere.

The issue here is that I do not recall a 60 year old man either i. being the most at risk given they are in group 7 alongside a 60 year old woman nor ii. being primarily responsible for breaking lockdown and spreading the virus.

More relevant might be to say that out of 1000 18-24 year olds, 1 might die and that risk has increased to 1.4*

* I do not know the mortality rate in 18-24 year olds.

It is still 40% deadlier than the old variant but the numbers are still, in absolute terms, so small that that age group may not perceive the increased risk as sufficient to change their behaviour. The challenge for the government throughout has been getting its message across to different groups.

I support lockdown, I support tougher restrictions on travel but the messaging is still too vague and misleading.

As for the data is still too new to assess the increased mortality, I struggle with that given the Kent variant has been in place since September and swept through Swale and Medway before spreading across the country, in part due, to the balls up over Christmas.

Remember 77% of 58 women thought their face looked smoother when using Olay for a week.

Statistical significance can be achieved with surprisingly low numbers. If the statistics here are not clear, why is that? Is it due to a poor or ineffective testing strategy, is there too much noise in the data or is it something else?

A statistician would not say it has risen from 10 to 13 or 14. A politician would say that having read the statistician's report and wanted to fudge the data or to highlight one point.

Remember, approximately 10% of the population are estimated to have had the virus and of those that are believed to have had the virus the mortality rate is 0.1% (old variant) in 60 year old men increasing to 0.13-0.14% (range in the new variant).

Each death is a tragedy, it leaves lasting effects on friends and family and the NHS is not equipped to cope with these numbers but the absolute numbers are still relatively small.

They are high enough for me to take steps in my life to try and avoid the risk of contracting the virus, if I haven't already had it, and to minimise the risk of me asymptomatically spreading it.

I neither want to die yet nor to risk living with the effects of long covid should contracting it not prove fatal. Similarly I do not want to be responsible for that outcome in someone else's life.
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
dgmx5 said:
Matt Hancock's been trying to do this and has been sanctioned (twice) by the UK Statistics Authority.

Boris used the example last night in "If 10 in 1000 60 year old men die from the old variant, the new variant would be 13 or 14 but the data is very new."

He then on to say something vague (excuse me, Boris, vague, surely not?) that a similar pattern could be seen elsewhere.

The issue here is that I do not recall a 60 year old man either i. being the most at risk given they are in group 7 alongside a 60 year old woman nor ii. being primarily responsible for breaking lockdown and spreading the virus.

More relevant might be to say that out of 1000 18-24 year olds, 1 might die and that risk has increased to 1.4*

* I do not know the mortality rate in 18-24 year olds.

It is still 40% deadlier than the old variant but the numbers are still, in absolute terms, so small that that age group may not perceive the increased risk as sufficient to change their behaviour. The challenge for the government throughout has been getting its message across to different groups.

I support lockdown, I support tougher restrictions on travel but the messaging is still too vague and misleading.

As for the data is still too new to assess the increased mortality, I struggle with that given the Kent variant has been in place since September and swept through Swale and Medway before spreading across the country, in part due, to the balls up over Christmas.

Remember 77% of 58 women thought their face looked smoother when using Olay for a week.

Statistical significance can be achieved with surprisingly low numbers. If the statistics here are not clear, why is that? Is it due to a poor or ineffective testing strategy, is there too much noise in the data or is it something else?

A statistician would not say it has risen from 10 to 13 or 14. A politician would say that having read the statistician's report and wanted to fudge the data or to highlight one point.

Remember, approximately 10% of the population are estimated to have had the virus and of those that are believed to have had the virus the mortality rate is 0.1% (old variant) in 60 year old men increasing to 0.13-0.14% (range in the new variant).

Each death is a tragedy, it leaves lasting effects on friends and family and the NHS is not equipped to cope with these numbers but the absolute numbers are still relatively small.

They are high enough for me to take steps in my life to try and avoid the risk of contracting the virus, if I haven't already had it, and to minimise the risk of me asymptomatically spreading it.

I neither want to die yet nor to risk living with the effects of long covid should contracting it not prove fatal. Similarly I do not want to be responsible for that outcome in someone else's life.
Click to expand...
“
“More relevant might be to say that out of 1000 18-24 year olds, 1 might die and that risk has increased to 1.4*

* I do not know the mortality rate in 18-24 year olds”

I’m pretty sure you can find that from the NHS data tables I used a few weeks ago.
Highlights ages, pre-existing conditions etc.



 
Status
Not open for further replies.