Are you worried yet.

[CatmanV2]

I can tell you that there is no financial benefit to anyone in registering a death as covid.

Oh let's not let facts get in the way

C

 

[CatmanV2]

are tens of thousands of excess deaths with no other plausible explanation being put forward.

This is very true

C

 

[Phil H]

As GC said:

I'm guessing the non Covid, Covid related deaths will be much higher (suicide, operations cancelled etc).

If expert opinions are to be believed those will run to tens of thousands of deaths, not from Covid but because of it, so a balance has to be struck between protecting the population from Covid and from unrelated illness. I just hope that the planning for return of clinics is more successful than that of the Test and Trace programme.

PH

 

[CatmanV2]

not from Covid but because of it,

...and the actions taken in response to it. It's a very fine balancing act indeed, I suspect.

One thing that does seem pretty clear is that lockdowns don't really work terribly well.

C

 

[Scaf]

One thing that does seem pretty clear is that lockdowns don't really work terribly well.

The only way to knelt his for sure, would be to know how many excess deaths there would have been if there had been no lock down, and we will never know that.
Statistics blxxdy statistics

 

[CatmanV2]

The only way to knelt his for sure, would be to know how many excess deaths there would have been if there had been no lock down, and we will never know that.
Statistics blxxdy statistics

Aye, but you can compare countries that locked down with countries that didn't. There does not appear to be much correlation between excess deaths and lockdown or nay. In fact in some cases quite the reverse appears to be so (cf Brazil and Peru) (Although I just checked the stats on this, and I may have my countries confused)
There are undoubtedly many confounding factors but I see that Carl Heneghen is arguing for a more Swedish approach
<disclaimer: I am not a statistician>

C

 

[Phil H]

The only way to knelt his for sure, would be to know how many excess deaths there would have been if there had been no lock down, and we will never know that.
Statistics blxxdy statistics

Back in April I started tracking the weekly published Covid statistics for a couple of local counties. Over the next three months the reporting periods changed, postcode lookups were changed, types of data were changed, and the correlation between specific towns and their respective counties seemed somewhat wayward.

Now I understand the need to refine data as a pandemic develops, and there are clearly competing views from acknowledged experts, but it does strike me that unless you have fixed reference points throughout the study period proper trend analysis becomes impossible; that makes it very easy for commentators (official or otherwise) to put any interpretation they like on the figures.

Perish the thought that anyone would want to hide or exaggerate the true Covid figures by manipulating data sets presented to the public, but I reached a watershed moment and bought some more car polish.

PH

 

[GeoffCapes]

Aye, but you can compare countries that locked down with countries that didn't. There does not appear to be much correlation between excess deaths and lockdown or nay. In fact in some cases quite the reverse appears to be so (cf Brazil and Peru) (Although I just checked the stats on this, and I may have my countries confused)
There are undoubtedly many confounding factors but I see that Carl Heneghen is arguing for a more Swedish approach
<disclaimer: I am not a statistician>

C

I don’t get why everyone is saying the Swedish approach is so much better.

Their country much less densely populated than the UK so the spread will undoubtedly be slower. Not rocket science.

 

[philw696]

Looks like BoJo will be addressing the people on Tuesday as to what's going on with 10 million already in lockdown again be interesting as to what the plans will be but my guess a lot more restrictions will be coming shortly.

 

[zagatoes30]

Looks like BoJo will be addressing the people on Tuesday as to what's going on with 10 million already in lockdown again be interesting as to what the plans will be but my guess a lot more restrictions will be coming shortly.

Well maybe, BoJo is not known for clear concise decisions

 

[Felonious Crud]

I don’t get why everyone is saying the Swedish approach is so much better.

Their country much less densely populated than the UK so the spread will undoubtedly be slower. Not rocket science.

Sort of, but not fully relevant. They also have cities, offices, pubs, clubs, restaurants and bars. What is perhaps more significant is that Swedes aren't generally selfish ***** who don't give a **** about anyone else. Their society is more socialist (economically as well as socially) and the greater good, obeying rules and not being dicks comes more naturally to them than the 'can I get away with it?' approach of the kind of ignorant twarts who stroll around without masks on etc etc rant rave gak gibber shrill squeaks and thumping keyboard.

Also, when they meet they don't all hug and kiss like, for example, southern Europeans do.

It's actually far more interesting than rocket science. It's the behavioural kind.

 

[CatmanV2]

World in continuing not to be simple non-shock

C

 

[GeoffCapes]

Sort of, but not fully relevant. They also have cities, offices, pubs, clubs, restaurants and bars. What is perhaps more significant is that Swedes aren't generally selfish * who don't give a **** about anyone else. Their society is more socialist (economically as well as socially) and the greater good, obeying rules and not being dicks comes more naturally to them than the 'can I get away with it?' approach of the kind of ignorant twarts who stroll around without masks on etc etc rant rave gak gibber shrill squeaks and thumping keyboard.

Also, when they meet they don't all hug and kiss like, for example, southern Europeans do.

It's actually far more interesting than rocket science. It's the behavioural kind.

Another positive for the Swedes, is that the ladies don't seem to have many inhibitions either!
As I learnt in my youth!

 

[mjheathcote]

Sort of, but not fully relevant. They also have cities, offices, pubs, clubs, restaurants and bars. What is perhaps more significant is that Swedes aren't generally selfish * who don't give a **** about anyone else. Their society is more socialist (economically as well as socially) and the greater good, obeying rules and not being dicks comes more naturally to them than the 'can I get away with it?' approach of the kind of ignorant twarts who stroll around without masks on etc etc rant rave gak gibber shrill squeaks and thumping keyboard.

Also, when they meet they don't all hug and kiss like, for example, southern Europeans do.

It's actually far more interesting than rocket science. It's the behavioural kind.

Good point about all the kissing and hugging, especially the French.

 

[mjheathcote]

Just watched Patrick and Chris on the Beeb.
Basically get ready for major lockdown tomorrow by Boris.

 

[CatmanV2]

Just watched Patrick and Chris on the Beeb.
Basically get ready for major lockdown tomorrow by Boris.

I think for certain values of major, you may well be correct. Of course lockdown has its own issues and health impacts

C

 

[mjheathcote]

I think for certain values of major, you may well be correct. Of course lockdown has its own issues and health impacts

C

Schools continue.
Work places continue, work from home only if possible.
Shops continue, with masks as present.
No social gathering at people's homes.
The biggie will they close the pubs and restaurants again, which I believe is the biggest spreader.
Eat out to help out probably has made the situation worse.

 

[Sam McGoo]

Regarding testing, I'm about to go offshore for the first time since all this started, and just had a test at a private facility, before I go onto the chopper and rig.
Been told to expect the results in 30 mins!

Imagine how much easier this would all be for everyone, if that was the case across the whole UK at all test centres.

 

[Felonious Crud]

Another positive for the Swedes, is that the ladies don't seem to have many inhibitions either!
As I learnt in my youth!

They're often just not as highly strung and neurotic as some other cultures.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Schools continue.
Work places continue, work from home only if possible.
Shops continue, with masks as present.
No social gathering at people's homes.
The biggie will they close the pubs and restaurants again, which I believe is the biggest spreader.
Eat out to help out probably has made the situation worse.

I think they will do what they did before.

Advise the over 70's to stay in. Close pubs and restaurants. No mixing with other households etc.