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Froddy

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1,072
It certainly will be - not only due to the election, but also for technical reasons.

Yesterday was the last trading day of the month, which presents an opportunity to study the monthly candles which have formed.

In the case of the S&P, there are two things to note:

First, October's monthly candle formed an "inside candle" (meaning that the whole candle remained within the range of September's candle). This represents indecision/equilibrium and chop. A break above or below the high or low of October's candle might present an actionable entry signal:

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Secondly, a technical pattern called a "dark cloud cover" has been confirmed. This is because September's candle opened above the close of August's candle, and then dropped and closed lower than the mid-point of August's candle. This is regarded as a reversal signal in technical analysis, and it has been confirmed by October's close below September's close.

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Could these be the parameters of the broadening formation on the weekly chart of the S&P? Who knows ...

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Wattie

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Thanks for the explanation Froddy.
Way above my knowledge level.

I’ll swill the tea mug and see what the leaves are saying in around 20 minutes.
 

Froddy

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1,072
Beauuutiful broadening formation in the S&P futures since the close of the cash session last night (5 minute chart below).

Would you Adam and Eve it?! Ignore anybody who teaches that support and resistance is measured by horizontal lines!

77096
 

Wattie

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8,640
Beauuutiful broadening formation in the S&P futures since the close of the cash session last night (5 minute chart below).

Would you Adam and Eve it?! Ignore anybody who teaches that support and resistance is measured by horizontal lines!

View attachment 77096
So what’s this mean Froddy?

I’m thinking ridiculous volatility till the result is settled........falls if it looks like one side will not accept the result (which looks to be close)
 

Froddy

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1,072
It basically means that the futures are on a voyage of "price discovery", broadening their range. There will be plenty of people who will have placed their stop losses based upon horizontal support/resistance who have been taken out, only to scratch their heads when the price then reverses in their predicted direction. The big boys are hunting for stops and taking peoples' money from them: they are licking their chops!

I don't know how much broader the range will become, if at all - price may consolidate until there's definitive news. We may end up with another broadening formation within this broadening formation. What I can confidently say is that any time price reaches the limits of any broadening formation, there's a low-risk trade there with potentially good returns if you stick to your stop losses.

If you don't set stop losses, with these enormous moves you'll get your head ripped off ...

Really interesting stuff going on with this election - it's a psychological thriller!
 
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JJbing

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I’ll never understand why the US election drags the FTSE up from the doldrums, especially when we’re on the eve of destroying our economy.
Enjoying the volatility though!
 

Froddy

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1,072
Chaps,

Silver (spot) has caught my attention - I think it looks ready to move higher soon, but I could be wrong!

  • the 8EMA (yellow) looks to be crossing above the 34EMA (green), see below
  • price has today broken above the 50 SMA (on a different chart), and is now above the 20, 50 and 100 SMAs
  • price is in a volatility squeeze after a period of consolidation (see below)
  • we had unusual call options activity a few weeks ago (I flagged this up at the time)

The only caveat is the wild volatility we’re presently seeing, so take everything you see with a pinch of salt and go light: that volatility squeeze could fire long OR short ...


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Froddy

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1,072
What a crazy day! S&P gapped up to a new all-time high at the open, and then sold off hard from there.

Notice that it gapped perfectly to the upper line of this broadening formation - pity the poor souls who bought exuberantly at the top, on Pfizer's news. There are plenty of price gaps below which are waiting to be filled ...

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The metals were absolutely hammered today - gold (spot) was down over $100 at one point. I am now in a small short gold (spot) position in case the volatility squeeze fires short and carries on.

The US$ dollar surged. I wonder whether we are setting up for another large market correction with a sell-off of absolutely everything- answers on a postcard!
 

Wattie

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8,640
Yup I’m quite happy with the fall as I’m looking to back the truck up.
Trump ain’t going anywhere fast, the vaccine is almost certainly hyped and won’t be available in any case for umpteen months- wonder if it cures the new mink strain?
My guts still telling me chaos is about to ensue.
Mainstream media declaring a candidate is not how this thing works.
 

JJbing

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445
Gutted, shorted SPX when it opened, underwater all day, then closed my positions only 5 pips up, for it to crash this evening. Very grumpy... on what could have been.
 

Froddy

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1,072
Gutted, shorted SPX when it opened, underwater all day, then closed my positions only 5 pips up, for it to crash this evening. Very grumpy... on what could have been.
Oh no! It's horrible when that happens, but at least you have preserved your capital, and there will be plenty more opportunities ...
 

Wattie

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8,640
Looks like Crypto’s are on the rise again- particularly Bitcoin.
I haven’t dabble since making money during the frenzy a few years ago.
Anyone here having a punt?
 

Wattie

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8,640
I’m in Etherium. Bitcoin is purely a currency. Etherium is a trading development platform, with Fortune 500 buy in, that happens to be a currency
Yeah that’s what I made money in years back. Will be interesting to see if talk of central bank digital currency adversely affects these.