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Wattie

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8,640
And they’re off........popcorns out!

This shows how morally corrupt the whole financial system has become.

Wall Street plumbs new depths- wtf is a regulator for?

Bankrupt Hertz granted approval to sell up to $1 billion in shares
 

Froddy

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1,072
Brilliant isn't it?!

Markets closed up today. Here's my take on the S&P:

On the weekly chart, we have a new outside candle - this means that price has taken out the high and the low of preceding week and created a "broadening formation" - the trendlines are the new range:

And on the hourly chart we can see that "broadening formation" in more detail.

Will price rally next week? It has to "go" somewhere. Crazy, but possible ...
 
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Froddy

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Market Jumps After Federal Reserve Begins Buying Corporate Bonds For The First Time

Wayne Duggan , Benzinga Staff Writer FOLLOW
June 15, 2020 2:45pm 1 min read Comments

Click here for our FREE stocks & options trading boot camp!
Market Jumps After Federal Reserve Begins Buying Corporate Bonds For The First Time
After a sluggish start, markets jumped Monday afternoon after the Federal Reserve announced it will begin buying corporate bonds of individual companies.
What Happened: The Fed said on Monday it's expanding its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility outside of exchange-traded funds and will begin buying individual corporate bonds as well.
“The SMCCF will purchase corporate bonds to create a corporate bond portfolio that is based on a broad, diversified market index of U.S. corporate bonds,” the Fed said Monday.
Why It’s Important: The SMCCF is authorized to buy up to $750 billion in corporate credit. The stimulus program was announced back in March, and it is the first time in history the Fed purchased corporate bonds to help inject liquidity into the economy.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve said its individual bond buying will be limited to bonds with remaining maturities of five years or less and issuers with credit ratings of BBB- or Baa3 as of March 22.
In addition to its SMCCF, The Federal Reserve has also authorized but not yet launched a Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility as well.


Errrr … nope!

Market jumps as broadening formation low is tested (see post above, and link below):
 

Froddy

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1,072
Chaps,

If you're long the market, be extremely careful - the SKEW has shot up to 137 today, meaning that Big Money is getting edgy. It hit this level on 20/2 - the first day of the Feb crash.


We've not yet had a flush big enough to correct the unhealthy put:call ratio - it's still in danger territory ...

In other words, the market is likely to correct imminently - we just don't know when.
 
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GTVGEOFF

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381
Chaps,

If you're long the market, be extremely careful - the SKEW has shot up to 137 today, meaning that Big Money is getting edgy. It hit this level on 20/2 - the first day of the Feb crash.


We've not yet had a flush big enough to correct the unhealthy put:call ratio - it's still in danger territory ...

In other words, the market is likely to correct imminently - we just don't know when.
Thanks Froddy, and the FTSE went up 178 points today, f**g crazy
 

JonW

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3,259
It’s simples....

Markets are irrational. They always are, even under normal circumstances. However, they are especially irrational when they are being driven by speculation, gambling and short termism...
 

Froddy

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1,072
Is it me?
I don't understand any of this thread anymore o_O
So sorry! I appreciate it's a different language. I know that some here are short-term trading so just thought I'd share my take on things (for what it's worth).

In plain English, my take on this is that the markets could continue to "melt up", but the risk of a dramatic fall is now great, so don't bet the farm.

Many will now buy exuberantly and be crushed ...
 

Wattie

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8,640
So sorry! I appreciate it's a different language. I know that some here are short-term trading so just thought I'd share my take on things (for what it's worth).

In plain English, my take on this is that the markets could continue to "melt up", but the risk of a dramatic fall is now great, so don't bet the farm.

Many will now buy exuberantly and be crushed ...
This.
The Fed induced nonsense may continue as the market fuels itself on Fomo and “stimulus”. Day traders believe they are now experts.
Underlying all this are atrocious global fundamentals and ever increasing signs that a second wave may have started.
The rise in stocks is built on quicksand.
 

MaseratiGent

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162
Looking back at the last 4m of actual outcomes vs what I was espousing here:
  1. Almost all investment banks have jettisoned V-shaped recovery (as have 80%+ asset/hedge fund managers according to IB surveys)
  2. All but Morgan Stanley see a the market heading south as opposed to rallying (MS base case is flat next year vs a rally)
  3. All investment banks cite central bank policy for propping up the market and causing the biggest disconnect between economic reality and asset prices.

What does this meant to what I was saying? Pretty much everyone has the view I had months ago now but the same people (like me) have been wrong sided by the sheer force of the central banks determination to prop up asset prices. Ad nauseum you know my views on the damage this will do to real people (i.e. having such a disconnect). Further, the wealth taxes I said would come seem pretty baked in now as a coming policy in the West...

I haven't made money since early April in this market and don't get gratification for getting the views right. I'm using my experiences in the GFC to see how this plays out.
 

Wattie

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8,640
Looking back at the last 4m of actual outcomes vs what I was espousing here:
  1. Almost all investment banks have jettisoned V-shaped recovery (as have 80%+ asset/hedge fund managers according to IB surveys)
  2. All but Morgan Stanley see a the market heading south as opposed to rallying (MS base case is flat next year vs a rally)
  3. All investment banks cite central bank policy for propping up the market and causing the biggest disconnect between economic reality and asset prices.
What does this meant to what I was saying? Pretty much everyone has the view I had months ago now but the same people (like me) have been wrong sided by the sheer force of the central banks determination to prop up asset prices. Ad nauseum you know my views on the damage this will do to real people (i.e. having such a disconnect). Further, the wealth taxes I said would come seem pretty baked in now as a coming policy in the West...

I haven't made money since early April in this market and don't get gratification for getting the views right. I'm using my experiences in the GFC to see how this plays out.
Stagflation????
 

Froddy

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1,072
Well, no surprises at today's close of the monthly and quarterly options contracts. Price manipulation occurs like clockwork as major, heavily traded stocks close near significant round numbers where there just so happens to be huge liquidity provided by the crowd. It's all about making as many options contracts expire worthless as is possible. I've said this before, but want everybody to understand what's going on. Here are the (suspicious) round(ish) number closes:

Apple: 349.72
Google: 1424.12
Microsoft: 195.15
Nike 95.78
Alibaba 220.64
Amazon 2675.01
American Express 100.94
Bank of America 25.25
Cisco 45.32
Costco 299.90
Intel 59.62
Nvidia 370.45
Walmart 199.85

And my personal favourite, Tesla at 1000.90

The S&P closed at 3097.75 (3100?), and the Nasdaq closed at 10,008.60 (10,000?). Pretty close ...

If anybody here is wondering what happened to their positions today, here's the answer - and it's typical at expiration. The volatility leash will be let go again next week when the trading computers (algos) will have a different agenda ....
 
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zagatoes30

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20,763
Love reading this thread but have absolutely no understanding of what is going on - no change there I hear you say
 

Froddy

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1,072
The S&P, Nasdaq, DOW are all heavily weighted by the big boys (Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook etc.) and disproportionately so. This means that when these stocks are strong, it gives the impression that the markets are strong when they're not.

What is going to happen eventually is that these stocks will reverse, and when they do, it will be dramatic. Basically there will be nowhere to hide.
Here's the range to watch (I have no idea what to expect in the middle, only what to expect at the top!):

Please bear in mind that this is the weekly chart, so not short-term. You all know my longer-term concerns regarding the put:call ratio and the SKEW.

The S&P is forming an inside week so far, so there will be chop going forward!
 
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