Brexit Deal

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
You've mentioned other countries. But why wouldn't it happen? Unless of course you have access to information the the worlds finest economists don't?
Printing money is a short term fix.
However, if the country cannot export profitably, then it won't export.
No exports mean no sales.
No sales mean less tax to collect in the UK.
Less tax means less the government have to spend.
Less Government expenditure means services are cut.
When services are cut, people lose their jobs and become reliant on the Government for welfare.
But when the Government doesn't have the money to pay it's bills, taxes go up.
When taxes go up people have less money.
With less money to spend the economy goes into recession.
More lose their jobs.
And so on and so on.

Aaahaaa now we’re getting somewhere Geoff - I’m probably gonna sound a bit nuts here but;

for a start the worlds finest economists didn’t predict anything they weren’t Paid to predict.
MarkMas mentioned Rating agencies earlier.

Everything is Rigged.

Every economy is now supported with money from thin air. Bankers pretending they’re in control. There are plunge protection teams buying stockMarkets to ensure they don’t fall. Sounds ridiculous eh but the apparently strength of the global economy is a mirage.

I agree with your statement above that Printing money is a short term fix)...but it’s been happening since the last FC, nearly 10 years of central bank manipulation. ...billions and billions.....trillions..........all just papering over cracks. All they’ve done is make it worse.

The ecb supports everything in the Eu....even the things it shouldn’t! Regardless..it is printing the money to Support it. The latest LTRO is a bank bailout.
European economies can work together but not in the same currency. It’s impossible. It’s like asking an Italian Maserati driver to run a car on a Spanish seat workers salary.

By the way, the global economy (us) worse.
No recovery., anywhere.
Hardly surprising Brexit isn’t popular then:

We print our own money when needed.....:we are 1 country, not 20 odd.

Little observation and a sincere one.’dont trust your bank.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
It's a long one..... (as the bishop said to the actress)


I had an interesting conversation at dinner last week, when someone asked me where I stood on Brexit.

I said, "Well, let me first lay out some of my principles" These were, roughly:

- trade is really important, especially free and friction-less trade, and it is vital that the UK businesses can have that;

- I'm anti-racist, so opposed to anything which panders to xenophobia or exclusionism;

- I'm very concerned about the potential domination of superpowers like Russia, China and America;

- I'm also concerned about the rise of isolationist nationalism in Europe and elsewhere;

- I think European values of cooperation, peace-making and diplomacy are important regionally and on a world stage;

- I think supporting growth, development and democracy in Eastern Europe is vital for the security and well-being of Western Europe;

- I'm in favour of political unions for people with common values and connected geographies, and have spoken out strongly in favour of Scotland staying in the union with England;

- I'm concerned about the environment and think it is really important that nations work closely together to improve the situation;

- I'm also concerned about the strong possibility of a local economic downturn.

As I said all this, my questioner smiled increasingly broadly, and finally exclaimed, "And THAT is why all sensible people agree that we all need to campaign together to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU."

They were rather surprised when I said, "No that is why the UK needs to leave the EU as soon as possible."

Because:

- global free trade is important and I don't approve of restrictive local cartels that have no internal tariffs and high external tariffs;

- I certainly don't approve of such cartels that are centred around one primary ethnicity (such as white-European) and are particularly exclusionary (for example with agricultural tariffs) toward other ethnicities, such as 'African' or 'Asian';

- while superpowers are a concern, most countries are not part of these, and it seems immoral and unwise to try to create a new superpower to confront the others, potentially risking a confrontation between global power blocs;

- it seems that a significant focus for, and accelerator of, isolationist nationalism within Europe is a direct response to attempts to compulsorily hold the nations together in a homogeneous and centrally-managed union (as with Yugoslavia, or the USSR or the EU), and a better curb on nationalism would be to allow nations to be free, and to encourage them to engage with each other in an independent but cooperative way;

- the UK (despite some colonialist-era errors) has been a strong proponent of European-style cooperation, peace-making and diplomacy regionally and on a world stage, and to subsume that into an ineffective and incoherent EU foreign policy would reduce the overall positive impact;

- EU policies that denude Eastern European countries of their best workers, discourage the location of industries in Eastern Europe, and undermine their economies with vanity infrastructure, cheap Euros and fixed exchange rates are dangerous for east-west European stability;

- a political union can probably only be effective and enduring when it applies to a fairly small and contiguous geographical area and people who closely share linguistic and social norms, and any attempt to widen this to encompass a more diverse group has to be imposed, it seems to me, by manipulation or force, and is doomed to fail;

- environmental problems are mostly regional or global, and while solving regional ones by the imposition of rules across a regional union is an option, this cannot work globally, so in the end the environment is best protected by local action, national rules, and international cooperation;

- in the face of a local economic downturn, recovery is more likely if each nation is able to make local adjustments to their economic, fiscal and industrial circumstances, than if several diverse economies are yoked together by common rules and currencies.

"So, no, my principles cause me to conclude that the UK should be out of the EU as fast as possible."

Some of the dinner guests were very upset and we had to leave.
You had to leave, what!
Can I suggest you view this as the same way I do when dropping my 4 year old daughter off at Kindie.
Her friends are always surprised to see a bald man, but are Impressed that I take the pi55 out of myself.
Your dinner friends have never met someone with so much intelligence......but you’re actually taking the pi55 out of them!
Touché or as the French say “ave it”
 
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MarkMas

Chief pedant
Messages
8,796
Haven't you just contradicted yourself?

I'm anti-racist, so opposed to anything which panders to xenophobia or exclusionism;

Then.

a political union can probably only be effective and enduring when it applies to a fairly small and contiguous geographical area and people who closely share linguistic and social norms, and any attempt to widen this to encompass a more diverse group has to be imposed, it seems to me, by manipulation or force, and is doomed to fail;

On one hand you don't want people to be excluded, and then you say political unions can only be for people who share the same (or similar) language and social norms.

Yeah, I see your concern.

In the end I think tribalism is a very strong force in humans, and that does not have to be based on race or flag, but just any kind of common thread that binds people together. (The only reason you and I are having this conversation at all is because we belong to the Maserati Tribe.) As such this tribalism can be a force for good or evil, and can be inclusionary or exclusionary (or both).

But I guess I am saying that for a nation or a union of nations to work it needs to make some sort of sense as a unit, and if you just try to bind nations together into large unwieldy political agglomerations, then you get dissent and restlessness. And as is often the case, there can be a greater tension between neighbouring tribes than distant ones. It is interesting to me that so many Scots hate union with England, but demand union with Luxembourg Bulgaria, etc.

So I'm not really talking about individuals or groups of individuals, saying 'Britain for the British', or 'keep foreigners out' (I am very pro immigration) but I am saying 'draw a sensible boundary around a bit of land and a group of people, and govern them in a coherent (and independent) way, and then have that nation interact with other nations in a friendly and collaborative way. Rather than draw a line around a huge nebulous area (the EU, the World, the Space Federation) and say we are all citizens of our Union. Which seems very impracticable. To say we are citizens of the UK, seems to me to bring us benefits and obligations as part of a coherent state. To say we are citizens of the EU, seems to me to be trying to feel part of an artificial project. To say we are citizens of the world is to say we are citizens of nowhere. In the end it is a judgement call about right-sizing and 'my tribe' vs 'your tribe'.

I'm currently reading American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America which is a fascinating guide to why the American Union has such massive cultural and political tensions.
 

JonW

Member
Messages
3,259
Can a single remainer explain why “no deal” is bad for us, but the Eu will be just fine?

Clock is ticking....::,.

Wattie

I'll have a go at giving you an answer to this.

However, to be clear, I'm not saying a no deal Brexit would be bad for the UK, but not bad for the EU. I think a no deal Brexit would be bad for everyone...

The biggest reason I think a no deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK is that I believe people would die because of it.

I know that sounds super-emotive, but NHS Chiefs have acknowledged that a no deal Brexit would mean that the NHS would no longer be able to function. Waiting times for operations would go up. There would be severe shortages of drugs. We would run out of blood. The steady stream of specialists contractors, nurses, medical experts from other EU countries and from non EU countries would dry up and go elsewhere. The same things would also happen in the private medical industry, and as a result of this there would be people who die just because we weren't able to agree an orderly exit.

Secondly, Ministeries such as Fisheries, and Agriculture predict that 1000s of fishermen and farmers would go out of business due to the failure to supply their products or get funding. They don't have the resources to wait for trade deals to be agreed, and are so close to breaking point it would be the end for many. This would lead to even higher levels of depression, anxiety, and eventually suicides. I acknowledge that the same could be said to a lesser extent for lots of small businesses that rely on either exports or imports, but it's particularly true for farming and fishing.

You may argue that all of this is capable of having been planned for and overcome. That may or may not be true. However, the reality is that this is what would happen if we crashed out of the EU without a deal, and is why, IMO, no politician (regardless of the **** they spout in public) will actually allow a no-deal Brexit to happen.

Can you explain why a no deal Brexit has benefits that outweigh these negatives?
 

Phil H

Member
Messages
4,107
Sorry, I’m still not seeing it. How does this justify Boris saying he didn’t say the £350m could be spent?

It’s the UKS saying they deal in statistics not predictions. The statement from Boris said we would “take back control” of £350m a week, so it implied it existed, which I suggest means it comes under the remit of the UKS.

Is there a link to show how the £350m was calculated from the existing EU contribution?


End of debate I think!

PH
 

MarkMas

Chief pedant
Messages
8,796
Wattie

I'll have a go at giving you an answer to this.

However, to be clear, I'm not saying a no deal Brexit would be bad for the UK, but not bad for the EU. I think a no deal Brexit would be bad for everyone...

The biggest reason I think a no deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK is that I believe people would die because of it.

I know that sounds super-emotive, but NHS Chiefs have acknowledged that a no deal Brexit would mean that the NHS would no longer be able to function. Waiting times for operations would go up. There would be severe shortages of drugs. We would run out of blood. The steady stream of specialists contractors, nurses, medical experts from other EU countries and from non EU countries would dry up and go elsewhere. The same things would also happen in the private medical industry, and as a result of this there would be people who die just because we weren't able to agree an orderly exit.

Secondly, Ministeries such as Fisheries, and Agriculture predict that 1000s of fishermen and farmers would go out of business due to the failure to supply their products or get funding. They don't have the resources to wait for trade deals to be agreed, and are so close to breaking point it would be the end for many. This would lead to even higher levels of depression, anxiety, and eventually suicides. I acknowledge that the same could be said to a lesser extent for lots of small businesses that rely on either exports or imports, but it's particularly true for farming and fishing.

You may argue that all of this is capable of having been planned for and overcome. That may or may not be true. However, the reality is that this is what would happen if we crashed out of the EU without a deal, and is why, IMO, no politician (regardless of the **** they spout in public) will actually allow a no-deal Brexit to happen.

Can you explain why a no deal Brexit has benefits that outweigh these negatives?

This wildly inaccurate scare-mongering.
  • 53% of all UK imports are from outside the EU and would be almost completely unaffected by this situation.
  • For the 47% of UK imports that are from inside the EU, many have alternative sources outside the EU, and procurement and supply chain specialists are already setting up alternative supplies (even from the USA, although it is well known that any involvement of the USA in the NHS is tantamount to both privatising and destroying it).
  • Most organisations (including the NHS) have been stockpiling products that thy feel are critical in case of supply chain disruption.
  • The UK and the EU have already agreed a 9-month transition period, to be used in the case of a no-deal Brexit in March, which would have meant treating all trade as if we were still in the EU for 9 months, so if we do the same in October or whenever, there would be almost no impact on imports.
  • A 'no-deal Brexit' (even without the transition agreement) does not mean that all imports into the UK would cease, it simply means that imports would involve additional paperwork (and possibly tariffs), similar to the paperwork currently used for 53% of our imports.
Salisbury's air-freights green beans from a Kenyan farm to a store shelf in 3 days. It is simply ridiculous to suggest that with a no deal Brexit means that the NHS would no longer be able to function due to severe shortages of drugs.
 

MarkMas

Chief pedant
Messages
8,796
.....Can a single remainer explain why “no deal” is bad for us, but the Eu will be just fine?......

Wattie

I'll have a go at giving you an answer to this.

However, to be clear, I'm not saying a no deal Brexit would be bad for the UK, but not bad for the EU. I think a no deal Brexit would be bad for everyone...

The biggest reason I think a no deal Brexit would be a disaster for the UK is ......

I guess Wattie is still waiting for an answer to his actual question, then....
 

JonW

Member
Messages
3,259
This wildly inaccurate scare-mongering.
  • 53% of all UK imports are from outside the EU and would be almost completely unaffected by this situation.
  • For the 47% of UK imports that are from inside the EU, many have alternative sources outside the EU, and procurement and supply chain specialists are already setting up alternative supplies (even from the USA, although it is well known that any involvement of the USA in the NHS is tantamount to both privatising and destroying it).
  • Most organisations (including the NHS) have been stockpiling products that thy feel are critical in case of supply chain disruption.
  • The UK and the EU have already agreed a 9-month transition period, to be used in the case of a no-deal Brexit in March, which would have meant treating all trade as if we were still in the EU for 9 months, so if we do the same in October or whenever, there would be almost no impact on imports.
  • A 'no-deal Brexit' (even without the transition agreement) does not mean that all imports into the UK would cease, it simply means that imports would involve additional paperwork (and possibly tariffs), similar to the paperwork currently used for 53% of our imports.
Salisbury's air-freights green beans from a Kenyan farm to a store shelf in 3 days. It is simply ridiculous to suggest that with a no deal Brexit means that the NHS would no longer be able to function due to severe shortages of drugs.

Hhhmm. There are limits to what I can say, but I can guarantee you that what I said is not wildly inaccurate, or ridiculous. To suggest it would be as easy to source medical supplies and drugs into the UK post a no-deal Brexit as it is to buy green beans from Kenya, on the other hand....
 

Rwc13

Member
Messages
1,668
Oh I do love the thoughtful, educated, rational, unemotional and soundly economically and socially argued posts of MarkMas on this thread. Shame the responses tend to be the same old unproven and unreliable rhetoric and opinion from the remain side of the house usually stated as unarguable facts
 

Wanderer

Member
Messages
5,791
I ain't, another fat anti-Semitic Corbyn slob elected thanks to Farage splitting the vote.
Corbyn, is IMHO, a decent human being. His politics are a bit awry, but he's honest, respects the disadvantaged, understands business needs to thrive but the leitmotif is back to the 70's of the three day week (actually Tories) and mega-powerful unions. Socially he's spot on.

Alternative is what we have now, the mega-rich becoming mega-richer, the poor becoming mega-poor, Ad infinitum...

Worth a punt for me, the alternatives are far worse, ie carrying on we do ow, what a fuucking dogs dinner that is..

Big and I mean massive changes are needed, not sure Corbyn is the man but he's nearer then most given the current crop of sycophantic wànkers.

It's basic philanthropy, happy people, happy workers, good. What do we have now, everyone pîssed off and being stripped of every last strip of dignity they have. I'm working class done fairly well, and I see my friends and family who've not been so lucky, living like tramps, forced to work when plainly too ill, reduced to a number on a spreadsheet.

This is a shîte state of affairs to quote Trainspotting, the British working class are the lowest of the low, to quote Trainspotting, and all the fresh air in the World won't make any fûcking difference, to quote Trainspotting......
 

Nibby

Member
Messages
2,027
Corbyn, is IMHO, a decent human being. His politics are a bit awry, but he's honest, respects the disadvantaged, understands business needs to thrive but the leitmotif is back to the 70's of the three day week (actually Tories) and mega-powerful unions. Socially he's spot on.

Alternative is what we have now, the mega-rich becoming mega-richer, the poor becoming mega-poor, Ad infinitum...

Worth a punt for me, the alternatives are far worse, ie carrying on we do ow, what a fuucking dogs dinner that is..

Big and I mean massive changes are needed, not sure Corbyn is the man but he's nearer then most given the current crop of sycophantic wànkers.

It's basic philanthropy, happy people, happy workers, good. What do we have now, everyone pîssed off and being stripped of every last strip of dignity they have. I'm working class done fairly well, and I see my friends and family who've not been so lucky, living like tramps, forced to work when plainly too ill, reduced to a number on a spreadsheet.

This is a shîte state of affairs to quote Trainspotting, the British working class are the lowest of the low, to quote Trainspotting, and all the fresh air in the World won't make any fûcking difference, to quote Trainspotting......
No one should be ****** off these days with the quality of life we have.
Some people bring hard times on to themselves but Corbyn and his cronies are always looking for someone else to blame, people should take responsibility for their own actions.
His logic of anyone who's anti-America is a friend of his just don't sit well with me, I like America, find the people decent and friendly, he obviously finds the mad mullahs of Iran and Hamas terrorists preferable to any American government.
 

Felonious Crud

Administrator
Staff member
Messages
21,013
Nope FC as I don’t get a vote over here.

Hence my passion for the one I did cast in the Uk and expected to be respected. Sadly it was not....millions feel the same.

So, It’s a bit like deep sea fishing now. I keep throwing out “chum” and remainers all keep biting.....constantly trying to throw the hook

You should have stayed and gone into politics. Surely better to be the man in the arena taking the fight head on?
 

Wanderer

Member
Messages
5,791
No one should be ** off these days with the quality of life we have.
Some people bring hard times on to themselves but Corbyn and his cronies are always looking for someone else to blame, people should take responsibility for their own actions.
His logic of anyone who's anti-America is a friend of his just don't sit well with me, I like America, find the people decent and friendly, he obviously finds the mad mullahs of Iran and Hamas terrorists preferable to any American government.
These are the same old leitmotifs I'm afraid, let's be realistic, the man is a champion of the disadvantaged (not I'm not saying his politics is up to speed or he will make a great PM, he isn't and he won't). But his social policies are spot on, you cannot ignore the levels of poverty and lack of basic human decent levelled at the less well off, surely not? Yes people should take responsibility for there own actions but there are many, many who can't, or are incapable, or are just thick? Fuk em or help em?
 

Nibby

Member
Messages
2,027
These are the same old leitmotifs I'm afraid, let's be realistic, the man is a champion of the disadvantaged (not I'm not saying his politics is up to speed or he will make a great PM, he isn't and he won't). But his social policies are spot on, you cannot ignore the levels of poverty and lack of basic human decent levelled at the less well off, surely not? Yes people should take responsibility for there own actions but there are many, many who can't, or are incapable, or are just thick? Fuk em or help em?
He's quite righty condemned the vile attack on two lesbian women on a night bus in town, but cosies up to Hamas who are basically an Iranian proxy, a country that hangs gays from cranes. The man is a charlatan.
 

Nibby

Member
Messages
2,027
These are the same old leitmotifs I'm afraid, let's be realistic, the man is a champion of the disadvantaged (not I'm not saying his politics is up to speed or he will make a great PM, he isn't and he won't). But his social policies are spot on, you cannot ignore the levels of poverty and lack of basic human decent levelled at the less well off, surely not? Yes people should take responsibility for there own actions but there are many, many who can't,
The war is won though, everyone in this country has a chance now, to my dad having Sky to watch the football and horse racing was utopia to him compared to the slums of the East End before the war, we've been spilt. Bringing up children cost a lot of money. Why do some some people have 3 or 4 children when they don't have a pot to **** in and then moan at the state their children are living in poverty?
 

Wanderer

Member
Messages
5,791
He's quite righty condemned the vile attack on two lesbian women on a night bus in town, but cosies up to Hamas who are basically an Iranian proxy, a country that hangs gays from cranes. The man is a charlatan.
And we support and supply Saudi Arabia with weapons, no one is innocent.

"Does it mean I agree with Hamas and what it does? No. Does it mean I agree with Hezbollah and what they do? No. What it means is that I think to bring about a peace process, you have to talk to people with whom you may profoundly disagree ... There is not going to be a peace process unless there is talks involving Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas and I think everyone knows that"
 

Wanderer

Member
Messages
5,791
The war is won though, everyone in this country has a chance now, to my dad having Sky to watch the football and horse racing was utopia to him compared to the slums of the East End before the war, we've been spilt. Bringing up children cost a lot of money. Why do some some people have 3 or 4 children when they don't have a pot to **** in and then moan at the state their children are living in poverty?
It's not good I recognise that.

People make mistakes, either they realise their stupidity or they don't, either way they are victims, help them or abandon them? Educate or castigate?